The model portfolio gained +7.2% in April, a strong month in absolute terms but trailing the S&P 500’s narrow, semiconductor-led rebound by 3.3 percentage points. The combined effect of March’s drawdown and April’s partial recovery means the portfolio is -4.7% since the start of March versus +5.1% for the S&P 500 over the same span — a two-month gap of nearly 10 percentage points. Year-to-date, however, the portfolio remains ahead at +7.8% versus +5.7% for the S&P 500. Since inception fourteen months ago, the model has returned +63.5% versus +24.6% for the S&P 500, an alpha of 38.9 percentage points, beating the benchmark in 10 of 14 months and in all five completed quarterly periods.

The deep-dive selection held its ground during the recovery. The average return across all eight active positions stands at +55% with an average holding period of approximately eight months. Serabi Gold joined APM and Mineros as a third multibagger, recovering strongly from March’s correction. The model portfolio’s third realized multibagger gold trade came in late April when a precious metals position was sold at +209%, the second-largest realized trade in portfolio history.

Markets in April

April produced a paradoxical setup. The U.S.-Iran conflict moved into a fragile ceasefire that held through most of the month, but the Strait of Hormuz remained essentially closed and oil prices stayed elevated throughout. Brent crude averaged roughly $102 per barrel, peaking near $126 mid-month and ending April around $114. The Federal Reserve held rates steady, with markets continuing to price in only one cut for the remainder of 2026 given the persistent inflation overhang from energy.

Despite this backdrop, U.S. equities staged their strongest monthly advance since 2020. The S&P 500 climbed 10.5% to a record close of 7,165 on April 24, but the rally’s leadership was unusually narrow. The story was overwhelmingly about semiconductors and AI infrastructure: Intel surged approximately 50% in April — its biggest monthly gain since 1974 — and the iShares Semiconductor ETF gained more than 30% from late March. Q1 earnings provided fundamental cover, with 88% of S&P 500 reporters beating expectations at the highest rate since 2021. Outside semiconductors and AI-adjacent names, breadth was decidedly thinner.

Precious metals partially recovered. Gold climbed from approximately $4,200 at the end of March to around $4,800 by April 30, retracing roughly half of March’s decline as speculative liquidation eased. Silver also recovered, though gold mining equities followed the metals higher only modestly as capital rotated aggressively into AI infrastructure names. The structural bull case for precious metals remains intact, with major banks maintaining year-end gold targets in the $5,400–$6,300 range.

The model portfolio’s challenge in April was less about lagging the rebound than about not fully recovering March’s drawdown. The materials weighting from the precious metals run dropped from 16.2% at end of March to 9.5% by month-end as a gold miner was sold. Industrials grew from 24.8% to 30.5% to absorb the rotation. The systematic ranking is doing exactly what it should — selling stocks that have lost their edge and rotating into newly-attractive names — but the transition takes time, and during that time the portfolio carries the residual drag from a sector that benefited the strategy enormously through 2025.

Model Portfolio Performance

A +7.2% monthly gain is a strong absolute result by any standard. The relative shortfall versus the S&P 500 is best understood as the accumulated effect of two months: the model gave up more than the index in March’s precious metals correction and then recovered somewhat less in April’s narrowly-led rebound. Year-to-date, however, the portfolio is still +2.1 percentage points ahead of the S&P 500, and since inception alpha stands at +38.9 percentage points.

Return Results (as of Apr 30, 2026):

• Total return (14 months): +63.5%

• S&P 500 return (same period): +24.6%

• Alpha generated: 38.9 percentage points

• Annualized return: 52.4% (vs. 20.8% for S&P 500)

• Monthly beats: 10 of 14 months (71%)

• Quarterly beats: 5 of 5 quarters (100%)

Realized Trades (since inception):

• Win rate: 56% of 101 trades (57 winners, 44 losers)

• Average return: 17.4% (winners: +45.5%, losers: -19.1%)

• Average days held: 144.5 days

• Realized multibaggers: 6 (the latest a gold miner realized on April 27 at +209% — the second-largest realized trade in portfolio history)

Risk-Adjusted Metrics (since inception):

• Beta: 0.64

• Sharpe Ratio: 2.15 (vs. 1.00 for S&P 500)

• Sortino Ratio: 2.53 (vs. 1.46 for S&P 500)

• Maximum Drawdown: -13.83% (vs. -16.19% for S&P 500)

The maximum drawdown remained at -13.83% through April, with the portfolio recovering steadily from March’s lows without setting new troughs. The Sharpe Ratio of 2.15 continues to reflect strong risk-adjusted returns, more than double the benchmark’s 1.00. Importantly, the portfolio’s maximum drawdown remains shallower than the S&P 500’s worst peak-to-trough decline over the same period — a meaningful demonstration of downside resilience even after the most challenging months since inception.

Current allocation is now spread more broadly across sectors than at any point this year. Industrials lead at 30.5%, followed by Technology at 15.9%, Consumer Non-Cyclicals at 10.4%, Materials at 9.5%, Consumer Cyclicals at 8.8%, and Energy at 8.7%. Microcaps continue to dominate at 76% of the portfolio, with small caps making up the remaining 24%.

Deep-Dive Stock Performance

April was a recovery month for the deep-dive selection, with most positions regaining ground after March’s correction. The average return across all eight active positions held steady at +55%, essentially unchanged from March despite the volatility of the past two months. Serabi Gold joined APM and Mineros as the third multibagger on the list.

Deep-Dive Summary

• Total positions: 8

• Average return: +55%

• Average holding period: ~8 months

• Multibaggers: 3 of 8 (APM, MSA, SRB)

The three publicly available deep-dives (APM, MSA, and SRB) remain accessible to all subscribers — you can find them in the deep-dives section.

Read more

For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology. My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can be customized to individual preferences.

New top stocks

Understanding the Ranking Terms

• Ticker – Every stock is identified by its primary ticker, based on the country where most of its trading occurs. Non-US stocks include a colon followed by a three-letter country ISO code.

• Name – The official company name.

• Sector – The primary industry sector of the company. While it's useful to ensure portfolio diversification, I don’t actively manage sector weights.

• Country ISO Code – A three-letter ISO standard country code (more details here). My model covers stocks globally to maximize opportunities and minimize market risk, but individual investors can adjust the universe based on personal preference or brokerage limitations.

• Market Cap (USD) – Market capitalization in USD. My strategy primarily targets microcaps (below $300M) and small caps (below $2B). Typically, the model portfolio consists of approximately 80% microcaps and 20% small caps. Note: Microcaps, particularly those between $20M and $50M (nanocaps), are significant contributors to excess returns.

• Current Rank – The stock’s position in the latest weekly ranking (rank 99 = highest rank).

• Previous Rank – The stock’s ranking position in the prior update.

• Liquid – Indicates whether the stock has an average liquidity greater than $50K USD and a stock price above $0.50 USD over the past two weeks.

New Ranking

Read more

For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology. My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can be customized to individual preferences.

New top stocks

Understanding the Ranking Terms

• Ticker – Every stock is identified by its primary ticker, based on the country where most of its trading occurs. Non-US stocks include a colon followed by a three-letter country ISO code.

• Name – The official company name.

• Sector – The primary industry sector of the company. While it's useful to ensure portfolio diversification, I don’t actively manage sector weights.

• Country ISO Code – A three-letter ISO standard country code (more details here). My model covers stocks globally to maximize opportunities and minimize market risk, but individual investors can adjust the universe based on personal preference or brokerage limitations.

• Market Cap (USD) – Market capitalization in USD. My strategy primarily targets microcaps (below $300M) and small caps (below $2B). Typically, the model portfolio consists of approximately 80% microcaps and 20% small caps. Note: Microcaps, particularly those between $20M and $50M (nanocaps), are significant contributors to excess returns.

• Current Rank – The stock’s position in the latest weekly ranking (rank 99 = highest rank).

• Previous Rank – The stock’s ranking position in the prior update.

• Liquid – Indicates whether the stock has an average liquidity greater than $50K USD and a stock price above $0.50 USD over the past two weeks.

New Ranking

Read more

For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology. My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can be customized to individual preferences.

New top stocks

Understanding the Ranking Terms

• Ticker – Every stock is identified by its primary ticker, based on the country where most of its trading occurs. Non-US stocks include a colon followed by a three-letter country ISO code.

• Name – The official company name.

• Sector – The primary industry sector of the company. While it's useful to ensure portfolio diversification, I don’t actively manage sector weights.

• Country ISO Code – A three-letter ISO standard country code (more details here). My model covers stocks globally to maximize opportunities and minimize market risk, but individual investors can adjust the universe based on personal preference or brokerage limitations.

• Market Cap (USD) – Market capitalization in USD. My strategy primarily targets microcaps (below $300M) and small caps (below $2B). Typically, the model portfolio consists of approximately 80% microcaps and 20% small caps. Note: Microcaps, particularly those between $20M and $50M (nanocaps), are significant contributors to excess returns.

• Current Rank – The stock’s position in the latest weekly ranking (rank 99 = highest rank).

• Previous Rank – The stock’s ranking position in the prior update.

• Liquid – Indicates whether the stock has an average liquidity greater than $50K USD and a stock price above $0.50 USD over the past two weeks.

New Ranking

Read more

For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology. My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can be customized to individual preferences.

New top stocks

Understanding the Ranking Terms

• Ticker – Every stock is identified by its primary ticker, based on the country where most of its trading occurs. Non-US stocks include a colon followed by a three-letter country ISO code.

• Name – The official company name.

• Sector – The primary industry sector of the company. While it's useful to ensure portfolio diversification, I don’t actively manage sector weights.

• Country ISO Code – A three-letter ISO standard country code (more details here). My model covers stocks globally to maximize opportunities and minimize market risk, but individual investors can adjust the universe based on personal preference or brokerage limitations.

• Market Cap (USD) – Market capitalization in USD. My strategy primarily targets microcaps (below $300M) and small caps (below $2B). Typically, the model portfolio consists of approximately 80% microcaps and 20% small caps. Note: Microcaps, particularly those between $20M and $50M (nanocaps), are significant contributors to excess returns.

• Current Rank – The stock’s position in the latest weekly ranking (rank 99 = highest rank).

• Previous Rank – The stock’s ranking position in the prior update.

• Liquid – Indicates whether the stock has an average liquidity greater than $50K USD and a stock price above $0.50 USD over the past two weeks.

New Ranking

Read more

For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology. My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can be customized to individual preferences.

New top stocks

Understanding the Ranking Terms

• Ticker – Every stock is identified by its primary ticker, based on the country where most of its trading occurs. Non-US stocks include a colon followed by a three-letter country ISO code.

• Name – The official company name.

• Sector – The primary industry sector of the company. While it's useful to ensure portfolio diversification, I don’t actively manage sector weights.

• Country ISO Code – A three-letter ISO standard country code (more details here). My model covers stocks globally to maximize opportunities and minimize market risk, but individual investors can adjust the universe based on personal preference or brokerage limitations.

• Market Cap (USD) – Market capitalization in USD. My strategy primarily targets microcaps (below $300M) and small caps (below $2B). Typically, the model portfolio consists of approximately 80% microcaps and 20% small caps. Note: Microcaps, particularly those between $20M and $50M (nanocaps), are significant contributors to excess returns.

• Current Rank – The stock’s position in the latest weekly ranking (rank 99 = highest rank).

• Previous Rank – The stock’s ranking position in the prior update.

• Liquid – Indicates whether the stock has an average liquidity greater than $50K USD and a stock price above $0.50 USD over the past two weeks.

New Ranking

Read more

The model portfolio declined -11.1% in March, underperforming the S&P 500's -4.9% decline. Year-to-date, however, the portfolio is still up +0.5% versus -4.4% for the S&P 500. Since inception thirteen months ago, the portfolio has returned +52.4% versus +12.8% for the S&P 500, outperforming by 39.7 percentage points. Despite March's drawdown, the model has beaten the benchmark in all five quarterly periods since launch — including during both up and down markets.

My deep-dive stock selection was not spared. The average return across all eight positions fell from +108% last month to +55%, driven primarily by the precious metals correction. With an average holding period of just seven months, that still represents a return well above what the model portfolio has generated over the same timeframe. APM — the portfolio’s all-time best-performing deep-dive — has been extended for another twelve months following its annual review, with a new entry price and updated targets reflecting record FY2025 results.

Markets in March

The Iran war dominated markets in March, creating the kind of cross-asset volatility not seen since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in early 2022. The U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28 triggered Iranian retaliation across the Gulf region, including attacks on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The effective closure of this critical chokepoint — through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil pass daily — transformed what might have been a contained military operation into a global energy supply shock.

Brent crude surged from roughly $70 per barrel to above $119 at its peak, with WTI settling around $100 by month-end. The immediate consequence was an inflation repricing: eurozone inflation jumped to 2.5% in March, driven by a 4.9% surge in energy costs. The Federal Reserve held rates steady at its March 18 meeting and penciled in just one rate cut for the remainder of the year — a sharp reversal from the two to three cuts markets had expected entering 2026. Bond yields climbed as investors repriced rate expectations, with the 10-year Treasury yield reaching 4.46% by March 27.

The precious metals sell-off was the most paradoxical development of the month. Gold, which entered 2026 near all-time highs above $5,500 after rallying 65% in 2025, fell approximately 14% in March — its worst monthly performance since the 2008 financial crisis. The mechanism is well understood but frequently misjudged by market participants: rising oil feeds directly into inflation expectations, which reduces the probability of rate cuts, which strengthens the dollar, which increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. In a market where speculative long positions had built up aggressively during 2025’s rally, this created a self-reinforcing liquidation cycle. Silver fared even worse, declining over 20% for the month. Gold and silver miners — heavily represented in the model portfolio and deep-dive selections — fell sharply alongside the metals. The junior gold miner index (GDXJ) saw significant outflows as leveraged positions unwound.

Energy stocks were the lone bright spot, with the S&P 500’s energy sector the only one to post positive returns for the month. The broader S&P 500 closed down -4.9% for March and -4.4% for Q1 2026, its worst quarterly showing since 2022. The Nasdaq entered correction territory, down more than 10% from its October peak.

For the model portfolio, the heavy weighting in materials (16.2%) and the concentration in micro-cap stocks (77%) amplified the impact. Small-cap and micro-cap stocks, which had been outperforming since late 2025, gave back gains as risk appetite collapsed. European and international stocks — where the model holds significant exposure — faced additional headwinds as the energy crisis weighed more heavily on energy-dependent economies.

Model Portfolio Performance

March was the first month where the model significantly underperformed the benchmark, generating -11.1% versus -4.9% for the S&P 500 — an excess return of -6.2% for the month. The magnitude of the drawdown reflects the portfolio’s concentration in sectors and market caps that bore the brunt of the war-driven sell-off.

Return Results (as of Mar 31, 2026):

• Total return (13 months): +52.4%

• S&P 500 return (same period): +12.8%

• Alpha generated: 39.7 percentage points

• Annualized return: 47.4% (vs. 11.7% for S&P 500)

• Monthly beats: 10 of 13 months (77%)

• Quarterly beats: 5 of 5 quarters (100%)

Realized Trades (since inception):

• Win rate: 55% of 98 trades (54 winners, 44 losers)

• Average return: 15.1% (winners: +42.9%, losers: -19.1%)

• Average days held: 141.5 days

• Realized multibaggers: 5 (the latest being a precious metals miner realized on March 30 at +338% — the single largest realized trade in portfolio history)

Risk-Adjusted Metrics (since inception):

• Beta: 0.21

• Sharpe Ratio: 4.07 (vs. 1.12 for S&P 500)

• Sortino Ratio: 5.13 (vs. 1.49 for S&P 500)

• Maximum Drawdown: -13.8% (vs. -16.2% for S&P 500)

The maximum drawdown increased from -12.2% to -13.8% this month as the portfolio experienced its sharpest intra-month decline since inception. The drawdown remains below the S&P 500’s -16.2% worst peak-to-trough decline over the same period, and the Sharpe Ratio of 4.07 continues to indicate exceptional risk-adjusted performance despite a very difficult month.

The portfolio’s low beta of 0.21 is worth emphasizing in context. The model’s returns are driven overwhelmingly by stock-specific selection rather than broad market exposure. In months where broad market factors dominate — as in March, when macro forces drove correlations sharply higher across asset classes — a low-beta portfolio with concentrated sector exposures can temporarily underperform. The systematic approach does not attempt to time macroeconomic events; it captures alpha through persistent factor exposures that compound over time.

Current allocation remains concentrated in micro-caps (77%) and small caps (23%), with Industrials (24.8%), Technology (18.6%), and Materials (16.2%) as the largest sector exposures.

Deep-Dive Stock Performance

March brought the most challenging month for the deep-dive portfolio since its inception. The precious metals correction — gold’s worst month since 2008 and silver’s sharpest decline in over a decade — weighed heavily on the three mining positions that have driven the majority of deep-dive returns. APM completed its 12-month annual review and has been extended for another year with updated targets.

Deep-Dive Summary

• Total positions: 8

• Average return: +55%

• Average holding period: ~7 months

• Multibaggers: 2 of 8 (APM, MSA - both stocks reached their bull case target)

The three publicly available deep-dives (APM, MSA, and SRB) remain accessible to all subscribers — you can find them in the deep-dives section.

Read more

For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology. My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can be customized to individual preferences.

New top stocks

Understanding the Ranking Terms

• Ticker – Every stock is identified by its primary ticker, based on the country where most of its trading occurs. Non-US stocks include a colon followed by a three-letter country ISO code.

• Name – The official company name.

• Sector – The primary industry sector of the company. While it's useful to ensure portfolio diversification, I don’t actively manage sector weights.

• Country ISO Code – A three-letter ISO standard country code (more details here). My model covers stocks globally to maximize opportunities and minimize market risk, but individual investors can adjust the universe based on personal preference or brokerage limitations.

• Market Cap (USD) – Market capitalization in USD. My strategy primarily targets microcaps (below $300M) and small caps (below $2B). Typically, the model portfolio consists of approximately 80% microcaps and 20% small caps. Note: Microcaps, particularly those between $20M and $50M (nanocaps), are significant contributors to excess returns.

• Current Rank – The stock’s position in the latest weekly ranking (rank 99 = highest rank).

• Previous Rank – The stock’s ranking position in the prior update.

• Liquid – Indicates whether the stock has an average liquidity greater than $50K USD and a stock price above $0.50 USD over the past two weeks.

New Ranking

Read more

For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology. My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can be customized to individual preferences.

New top stocks

Understanding the Ranking Terms

• Ticker – Every stock is identified by its primary ticker, based on the country where most of its trading occurs. Non-US stocks include a colon followed by a three-letter country ISO code.

• Name – The official company name.

• Sector – The primary industry sector of the company. While it's useful to ensure portfolio diversification, I don’t actively manage sector weights.

• Country ISO Code – A three-letter ISO standard country code (more details here). My model covers stocks globally to maximize opportunities and minimize market risk, but individual investors can adjust the universe based on personal preference or brokerage limitations.

• Market Cap (USD) – Market capitalization in USD. My strategy primarily targets microcaps (below $300M) and small caps (below $2B). Typically, the model portfolio consists of approximately 80% microcaps and 20% small caps. Note: Microcaps, particularly those between $20M and $50M (nanocaps), are significant contributors to excess returns.

• Current Rank – The stock’s position in the latest weekly ranking (rank 99 = highest rank).

• Previous Rank – The stock’s ranking position in the prior update.

• Liquid – Indicates whether the stock has an average liquidity greater than $50K USD and a stock price above $0.50 USD over the past two weeks.

New Ranking

Read more

For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology. My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can be customized to individual preferences.

New top stocks

Understanding the Ranking Terms

• Ticker – Every stock is identified by its primary ticker, based on the country where most of its trading occurs. Non-US stocks include a colon followed by a three-letter country ISO code.

• Name – The official company name.

• Sector – The primary industry sector of the company. While it's useful to ensure portfolio diversification, I don’t actively manage sector weights.

• Country ISO Code – A three-letter ISO standard country code (more details here). My model covers stocks globally to maximize opportunities and minimize market risk, but individual investors can adjust the universe based on personal preference or brokerage limitations.

• Market Cap (USD) – Market capitalization in USD. My strategy primarily targets microcaps (below $300M) and small caps (below $2B). Typically, the model portfolio consists of approximately 80% microcaps and 20% small caps. Note: Microcaps, particularly those between $20M and $50M (nanocaps), are significant contributors to excess returns.

• Current Rank – The stock’s position in the latest weekly ranking (rank 99 = highest rank).

• Previous Rank – The stock’s ranking position in the prior update.

• Liquid – Indicates whether the stock has an average liquidity greater than $50K USD and a stock price above $0.50 USD over the past two weeks.

New Ranking

Read more

For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology. My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can be customized to individual preferences.

New top stocks

Understanding the Ranking Terms

• Ticker – Every stock is identified by its primary ticker, based on the country where most of its trading occurs. Non-US stocks include a colon followed by a three-letter country ISO code.

• Name – The official company name.

• Sector – The primary industry sector of the company. While it's useful to ensure portfolio diversification, I don’t actively manage sector weights.

• Country ISO Code – A three-letter ISO standard country code (more details here). My model covers stocks globally to maximize opportunities and minimize market risk, but individual investors can adjust the universe based on personal preference or brokerage limitations.

• Market Cap (USD) – Market capitalization in USD. My strategy primarily targets microcaps (below $300M) and small caps (below $2B). Typically, the model portfolio consists of approximately 80% microcaps and 20% small caps. Note: Microcaps, particularly those between $20M and $50M (nanocaps), are significant contributors to excess returns.

• Current Rank – The stock’s position in the latest weekly ranking (rank 99 = highest rank).

• Previous Rank – The stock’s ranking position in the prior update.

• Liquid – Indicates whether the stock has an average liquidity greater than $50K USD and a stock price above $0.50 USD over the past two weeks.

New Ranking

Read more